In defense of Jayson Werth

Nobody has blogged on the Buzzer in a month and frankly I'm a little disappointed. Pretty soon this is going to turn into a full-fledged Nationals blog and everything we've worked so hard for will be for nothing. Uncle Stevo tells me he has a 2004 ALCS retro diary in the works; why he'd want to relive that series, I have no idea (except for the scene when Big Mark ejected me from his house in the 8th inning, an ejection that to this day I contend was unfair--I understand that even though I said literally nothing the entire game, my presence as a Red Sox fan might have merited a warning to both benches/couches once the Sox started to rally, but I feel like you have to show up the ump to get tossed like that).

Anyway. To business. Long day today so I'll probably keep this short (note: I said that the last time I wrote one of my popular "In Defense Of..." series posts, and I ended up spending like 2 hours on that, but I don't see that happening this time), but here goes.

Steve texted me today: "So I just happened to stumble across Jayson Werth's 1st half stats. As my only Nats source I want to know if that contract will go down as the all time worst--or just top 5 worst?"

To review: Werth signed a 7-year, $126M contract in December as a free agent. He turned 32 in May, meaning he'll be 39 at the end of his deal (in the unlikely event he remains in Washington for the duration).

First, the bad news.

-On pace for a near-career high in strikeouts.

-Seeing the fewest pitches/PA in his career (4.26).

-On pace for career high in errors (6 already, never had more than 6 in a season), albeit on many more total chances than he had in Philly (probably a function of Philly's strong, strikeout-heavy pitching versus Washington's defense-dependent junkballers)

-Power outage (note: when writing about a baseball player who has experienced a decrease in slugging percentage, you're required by baseball law to use the phrase "power outage"). Werth's OBP is the lowest since his second year in the majors (with Toronto), and his SLG is the lowest of his career; as you may have guessed, his OPS is also at a career-low .681.

Watching Werth at the plate this year, two things are obvious to even a casual observer. One, he's lacking confidence--it seems like he takes the first pitch for a strike at the knees every single PA, even if it's off-speed. Starting every AB in an 0-1 hole won't do wonders for your average. Two, he's not hitting the ball hard--his 10 HR notwithstanding, Werth looks like he's lost a lot of pop this year. The balls he puts in play for outs are rarely screaming liners that find the corner infielders.

-Could have had the same production for a much lower price. Here are the players that baseball-reference.com ranks as most similar to Werth over his 9-year career:

-Brad Hawpe

-Kal Daniels

-Corey Hart

-Curtis Granderson

-Bob Cerv

-Juan Rivera

-Josh Willingham

-Ryan Ludwick

-Pat Mullin

-Jeffrey Hammonds

One of those players should look especially familiar to Nats fans--Josh "The Alabama Hammer" Willingham, who was the Nats' regular left fielder for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. He posted a .260/.367/.496 line in 2009 and a .268/.389/.459 line in 2010--hardly the signs of a player in decline at age 31. He's put up a more pedestrian .241/.311/.424 line this season with Oakland, which, sadly, is not only significantly better than Werth's .215/.319/.362, but is probably also unfairly low because of Oakland's massive foul territory, which has been estimated to deplete an Oakland regular's BA by about 7 points a year.

Here's the part that really stings, though-- the Nats could have had Willingham instead of Werth if they hadn't let him walk in free agency, where he commandeered a cool 1-year, $6M deal from Oakland. The name is a lot less sexy, but those numbers are a whole lot easier to stomach.

-Backloaded contract:

2011: $10 million
2012: $13 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $20 million
2015: $21 million
2016: $21 million
2017: $21 million

Now, logically, we're not expecting Werth to improve in his mid- to late-thirties, so what's the Nats' angle here? The media heads have eaten up the PR explanation, which is that we expect the Nats to be contending for the World Series by the end of Werth's deal, and it won't just be money well-spent, but money that gets better with age, like a fine wine. Another explanation is that the Nats really don't intend on keeping Werth until he's 39, and will buy him out of the deal after 2013 or so, when the serious position player money starts to kick in. A third explanation, the one that I'm going to run with, is that we're going to wait until his deal looks absolutely rancid in 2014, and then deal him to the Mets, who will be going through Bad Contract Withdrawal and will offer up a handful of top-shelf prospects just to get another fix.

Actually, this whole affair has the potential to become very Mets-ish if the Nats aren't careful (and in fairness, the Nats' front office is, by all accounts, much better than the Mets' was). I seem to recall the Mets following a similar blueprint to become contenders around 2005--build around the farm system until you produce a couple cornerstone studs (Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Bryce Harper, meet Jose Reyes, David Wright, Mike Pelfrey, and Ike Davis), make the playoffs for a few seasons, then start thinking you're the Yankees, and tragically overpay a couple washed-up/injury-prone veterans with name-recognition value in a misguided ploy to sell tickets, then continue to pay their bloated contracts once they're bought out halfway through their deals and run out of town on a rail. (I can't wait for phase three, when the owner rips the stars he's openly trying to deal in the media and cuts their trade value in half!)

--

But wait! There's also good news:

-On pace for best seasons ever in walks and stolen bases, a reflection of the Nats' patient hitting and aggressive baserunning philosophies

-On pace for one of his best two seasons in outfield assists, helping make the Nats' outfield (Werth and the rotation of Ankiel/Bernadina/Laynce Nix) one of the best in the majors at defending the basepaths, as well as one of the best at having extraneous "Y"s in their first names (still waiting for Royger Bernadina and Rick Aynkiel to step up in this department).

-Traditionally a second-half hitter. Hopefully he cleared his head over the All-Star Break (Tyler Clippard for the win! Earned despite giving up a single to the only batter he faced! But still!) and is ready to come back recharged on Friday.

-The intangibles. (Note: Whenever you start to write about baseball intangibles to defend a statistically subpar player, a giant red siren starts whooping in Ken Tremendous' basement. Sorry pal.)

Now, I'm as statty of a stat guy as there is, but as a Nationals fan, I have to admit that there is something to be said for what Werth brings to the clubhouse. He brings a championship pedigree to the lineup that Livan brings to the rotation, having been an All-Star and won a World Series ring with one of the most dominant teams in baseball in recent years. (My theory as to why Werth's AB music is "November Rain" by GNR, aside from the fact that it's a great song, is that it's a subtle, boasting reference to the fact that he's played meaningful baseball in November.)

Werth has never been great with the media--he appeared to set the world record for surliness when Sports Illustrated tried to profile him in 2010--and even now, at age 32, he's fidgety and uncomfortable during the puffball TV interviews after a big win. (When I was tutoring football players in college, I would watch their TV interviews on YouTube before I met with them to see what kind of kid I was dealing with--is he respectful? Dismissive? Coherent? Usually, this was very helpful in gearing up for the sessions, which led me to believe that you can learn a lot about someone by how they come across on camera, whether it's an 18-year-old kid or a 32-year-old man.) Reading his quotes in the newspapers, I often find myself wondering if he reads them, too, and if so, would he like a do-over on a lot of them. (Wait, isn't this in the "good news" section? Dammit.)

But inside the clubhouse (where, granted, I haven't been), you get the sense that his teammates have the utmost respect for him. Even when he hasn't hit this year, he's been aggressive on the basepaths--on the 4th of July, in the 9th inning, he swiped third base when the Cubs' pitcher wasn't paying attention, then hustled home and bear-hugged Ian Desmond on a game-winning passed ball. He and Livan are always the first guys you see charging out of the dugout to lead the mob at home plate when the Nats put together one of their signature one-run and/or extra-inning wins. He has carried himself like a team player on the field, even if he's not the most gregarious personality. (If the 2011 Nats were the cast of Slap Shot, he'd be Ned, minus all the offense.)

Finally, his struggles this season have not been of the "Adrian Beltre in a Non-Contract Year" variety. He cares, he's pissed, and it shows. It's plainly evident that he's his own worst critic, and it's equally obvious that it's killing him to be shuffled up and down the lineup in an attempt to find a spot where he'll start hitting.

The Werth signing was supposed to usher in the Second Phase of the Nationals' blueprint for fielding a genuinely competitive team. There's still a Moneyball flavor to the front office so far, but the days of retreads and castoffs (Wily Mo Pena, Aaron Boone, Dmitri Young, Cristian Guzman...the list goes on) are slowly giving way to the days of homegrown prospects (Espinosa/Desmond/Harper/Strasburg/Bernadina/Storen/Clippard), diamonds in the rough (Michael Morse, Laynce Nix), and big-money players (Werth, Zimmerman). Sure, there are still the bargain-bin and two-day-old leftover types hanging around (Matt Stairs, Adam LaRoche, Alex Cora), but they're now the utility players, not the starters.

So was Werth's deal a misstep? Yes and no. He's not hitting like a guy with his price tag should--nowhere near it. There's every reason to believe he peaked as a player in 2009, his All-Star season in Philly. But with that in mind, there's something to be said, as a fan, for having a guy with his pedigree in your lineup instead of having to talk yourself into rooting for a Wily Mo Pena (or even a statistically comparable, but less marketable player like Josh Willingham). When you're getting two-hit by one of the Phillies' aces yet again, even if Werth is in a terrible slump, there's a glimmer of hope when he comes up--"Hey, that's right, we have Jayson Werth!"--and that's valuable as a fan.

And however corny and terrible those last few sentences might have been, let's at least agree that Werth's Nats deal can't be the worst of all time, or even in the top-5, because that honor will forever belong to Carl Pavano's Yankee contract. (Rounding out the top 5, recent memory only, in no particular order: Andruw Jones (Dodgers), Dice-K (Red Sox), Kei Igawa (Yankees), Barry Zito (Giants)). ESPN has more here.