Fixing the Nats

The Riggler: The Handsomest Man in Baseball. By Norman Rockwell. $85 at the Manlius Senior Center Watercolor Show

Greetings once again from our nation's capital. With all this NBA talk around here lately, I thought we could use a breath of fresh air. This post will probably upset Blumenthal a la my excellent "In Defense of Vernon Gholston" piece, because it tackles a topic that nobody else cares about and will probably make me seem like I don't know anything. But the Gholston piece was a gem, and this one will be too, although I'm not tipsy like I was when I successfully made the case for Vernon Gholston to be an NFL starter. Honestly, read that again and tell me I'm wrong. You can't do it.

With that said, I'd like to take this time to present...

The Danny Macintosh Blueprint for Fixing the Nationals, in Five Easy Steps™

I've been to a half-dozen Nats games this season (one of the benefits of living a ten minute walk from the park, and being able to buy bleacher seats day-of-game for $5). I've also been to about that many Nats games combined over the summers of '08 and '09 (if you don't believe my Nats cred, I recommend re-reading another one of my past Buzzer gems, a dispatch from Nationals Park in the summer of '08), and started following the team seriously during the '10 season, especially with The Rise of Strasburg. My loyalties still lie with the Red Sox, but the Nats are absolutely my "team on the side"--everyone knows that if it's not the same league, it's not bigamy (the baseball equivalent of the "area code rule").

Point being that I know my stuff here, and feel qualified to offer this unsolicited plan to help this team win now. The blockbuster Jayson Werth signing sent the signal that GM Mike Rizzo wants this team to get out of the "rebuilding" mindset and start competing to win now, and I'm 100% on board. With fingers crossed that this blog doesn't preclude me from having a front office job someday, let's start with...

1) Bench Adam LaRoche

A slick-fielding first baseman hitting .172 with little power (3 HRs, 7 XBH to date in 2011) who takes 200 ABs to hit his stride every year is not a luxury a last-place team that’s struggling to get to .500 can afford. LaRoche's notoriously slow starts are doubly harmful in a Washington lineup that's starving for power and consistency, because the only way to get him enough ABs for him have a productive second half is to hit him high in the order--he's usually hit 5^th so far this year, and sometimes even cleanup, which is ridiculous given that he has 15 RBI in 151 ABs at the quarter-season mark.

At this point in his career, at age 31 (32 in November), he’s a solid backup/platoon first baseman and late-inning defensive replacement (his fielding percentage this year is a sparkling 1.000, with no errors in 412 chances). Sure, he’s probably saved a few runs with his glove this year. The amount of runs he’s cost us by hitting so poorly, however, has to outweigh it. Aaaaaand let's check the stats...ding ding ding! Using Baseball Reference's metrics, LaRoche's defense has saved the Nats 7 runs above a replacement first baseman, and his offense has cost the team 9 runs (-9 above a replacement player). To me, that all adds up to "platoon", not "everyday player" (42 starts in 43 games). LaRoche is not a real full-time solution at a key power position for a club that wants to be a year away from contending.

2) Solve the impending logjam in the outfield

The Nats have been lucky enough, or prescient enough, to have five quality outfielders on this year's team: Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel, Laynce Nix, and Michael Morse. The only problem is that this isn't gym softball (Coach Blackford's not coming through that door!), so you're limited to three outfielders.

Luckily, as you might have guessed, I have the answer. First, move Morse, a 28-year-old righty, to 1B full-time—it will spare his shaky knees some running, and the Nats will finally have a first baseman that can hit lefties and hit somewhat convincingly in the middle-to-low part of the order. He’s listed as 2^nd on the depth chart at 1B, so presumably he's played the position once or twice, and at 6’5” he presents an outsized target that should make up for some of the loss of Laroche’s flexibility handling errant throws.

(UPDATE: The Nats did just this--bench LaRoche for Morse at 1B--in tonight's game at Milwaukee, and Morse went 3-5 with a double and a grand slam. Did the Commish call it or did the Commish call it?)

That leaves an outfield of Nix (LF), Ankiel (CF), and Werth (RF). Nix has been a pleasant surprise, and a major bargain at $700K. At age 30, he's playing to prove he deserves a real contract. Ankiel and Bernadina are both decent hitters (although Bernadina is having the better year so far statistically, he hasn't had a ton of ABs so far filling in for the injured Ankiel) with rocket arms in center. Obviously, Werth is a cornerstone, and won't be going anywhere anytime soon, especially with his massive deal.

Under the Macintosh plan, the Nats add a lefty bat in the OF (Nix instead of Morse) to replace and upgrade the lefty bat they're losing in Laroche. Bernadina is an ideal fourth outfielder—young (26), hits well, a good (and at times excellent) defender, and--here's the kicker--very fast! Which means we can go to step 3 and…

3) Clean out the bench

Of the current bench players:

-Cora

-Hairston (once Zimmerman is healthy)

-Stairs

-Bixler

-Pudge

-Nix

Four are bringing value to the club. Under my plan, Nix is promoted to the starting lineup. Cora has done well as a pinch-hitter, plays good-to-very-good infield defense, and provides veteran leadership for a young middle infield (Espinosa and Desmond, two building blocks, are both under 25). Hairston has been similarly decent, and has stepped up big to fill in for Zimmerman at 3B. Pudge has also been a pleasant surprise, in the sense that he’s handled the transition to backup backstop gracefully (take notes, Jorge!), hasn’t been as atrocious at the plate as was expected, and plays great defense, gunning down runners at second as well as ever. He also provides veteran leadership, serves as a mentor for Ramos (whom he needs to groom to handle Strasburg next season), and has a good relationship with the pitching staff.

As for the other two guys, there's no gentle way to put it: they stink. No judgment on them as people, obviously, but they're not getting it done on the field.

Stairs is 43, and despite all the talk about how he’s a born pinch-hitter, the numbers don’t lie (.097 BA, .263 OBP). The guy doesn’t have it anymore. He’s too old to bring anything else to the club other than hitting, like defense or baserunning, and if you’re not doing that, why are you here? A pinch-hitter who can't hit belongs on the Island of Misfit Toys, along with the bird that can't fly, the Charlie in the Box, and the train with square wheels. He’s reportedly a hell of a nice guy and a good leader, but we already have veteran clubhouse leaders in Cora and Pudge (I’d include Werth here by virtue of his age and pedigree, but from everything I’ve read he’s kind of a Josh Beckett-style lone wolf in the clubhouse). I doubt he has minor league options, so let’s grant him his release while there’s time for him to latch on with another team and let him exit gracefully.

As for Bixler—look buddy. You’re probably a nice dude, too, but you're in the wrong line of work. Earlier this year, you came in as a pinch-runner this year and immediately got picked off at second to end the inning. (Total stolen bases: 0.) Needless to say, you also can’t hit (BA .133, OBP .188), and your appearances as a PH have not been noteworthy. It’s not like your defense is so stellar that we’d keep you around as a late-inning defensive replacement (see: LaRoche). It would be one thing if you were 23 and just breaking in, and we could chalk it up to rookie ineptitude. You’re 28—go get a respectable job, settled down, buy a house. You can’t help this team win.

Bernadina will be a more-than-suitable replacement as a PH and PR—he’s better than Bixler and Stairs at both. He also gives you youth and a piece to build around as the outfield ages. It’s unlikely that Nix, Ankiel and Morse will ALL be here next season, leaving room for Bernadina and possibly Bryce Harper if he’s ready. Worst-case scenario, you put Harper on the bench and work him in gradually, like they did with Ramos, and dump one of Hairston, Cora, or LaRoche.

4) Use this lineup

So to recap, under the Macintosh Plan, the lineup would be:

1. Espinosa 2B

2. Ankiel CF

3. Zimmerman 3B

4. Werth RF

5. Morse 1B

6. Nix LF

7. Ramos C

8. Desmond SS

9. Pitcher

Bench:

OF: Bernadina (#1 PR)

3B-OF: Hairston (#1 PH)

SS-2B: Cora

1B: LaRoche

If you're keeping score at home, that's switch, lefty, righty, righty, righty, lefty, righty, righty, pitcher, with three lefties and a righty on the bench.

Which leaves only...

5. Leave the pitching staff alone

The pitching staff has been incredible considering the low expectations, and we have a strong, young bullpen that has performed well under pressure. It’s probably Livan’s last year as a reliable starter, but next season Strasburg should be able to step in seamlessly for him, leaving a rotation of Strasburg, Marquis (if he's still here), Lannan, Zimmermann, and Gorzelanny. That's not a half-bad rotation, even in the same division as the Phillies--young, hard-throwing, and with a veteran anchor in Marquis.

As for the bullpen: last season, the Nats' closer, Matt Capps, was a legitimate All-Star (not just one those "every team has to have one" All-Stars--looking at you, 2006 Brian Fuentes!). But a genuine closer is value wasted on a last-place team that isn't going to need a closer very often, so the Nats did the smart thing and dealt him to Minnesota for a pair of prospects that included current starting catcher Wilson Ramos, who's a budding star and a building block for the future.

The bullpen situation this year is different. It's young, loaded with live arms (Clippard, Rodriguez, Burnett, and Kimball), and boasts a star closer of the very near future in Drew Storen. There are also a couple promising pitchers in the farm system, foremost among them Colin Balester. That's why I think the Nats should take care not to gut this bullpen too thoroughly if they try to make another legitimate big-market team move and go after a bat. The team got lucky once that it could unload a stud closer and count on another one waiting in the wings, but if Daniel Bard's 2011 season is any indication, being designated a "closer-in-waiting" is never a sure thing.

For the zero of you still reading, this concludes my five-step program for fixing the Nationals. Let it be known that I've been putting in my time with this team since their third year in DC, paying my dues at dozens of 1-0 home losses to the Marlins, so that I have some serious fan credibility when this team turns into a contender in what I hope is the not-so-distant future.